Tendency of the Week · November 4, 2026
Who still runs it on 3rd and long
On 3rd and 7 or more, most offenses throw. The teams that keep running it are telling you something about their quarterback, their protection or their plan for field position.
FBS
| # | Team | Run rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rice | 62% | 40 plays, 8 games |
| 2 | New Mexico | 61% | 38 plays, 8 games |
| 3 | Army | 56% | 32 plays, 7 games |
| 4 | Air Force | 54% | 39 plays, 8 games |
| 5 | BYU | 52% | 31 plays, 8 games |
FBS average: 23% over 6,165 plays.
NFL
| # | Team | Run rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami Dolphins | 29% | 45 plays, 7 games |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 22% | 55 plays, 8 games |
| 3 | Dallas Cowboys | 22% | 37 plays, 8 games |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings | 20% | 49 plays, 7 games |
| 5 | Atlanta Falcons | 18% | 39 plays, 8 games |
NFL average: 12% over 1,394 plays.
On film: check whether those runs are draws and quarterback runs against two-high shells, or simply giving up on the down. The first is a plan you can defend; the second is field position you can take.